Facing Reality With China

Will a deal with China get done? Logic says yes but it may just depend on Trump’s mood. Clearly a deal with China and a resultant bump up in the stock market would further Trump’s reelection chances. But as will be discussed regardless of any deal the future for US/China economic relations does not look […]

Danger Ahead — The Export Controls Act Of 2018

The U.S. can believe it’s going to suppress [Chinese manufacturing] and take steps to suppress and contain it, but it’s preordained to fail. Parag Khanna, author of forthcoming book The Future Is Asian In the last Dismal Optimist, I took the cautiously optimistic view that Trump would need to make a deal with China in […]

Will Economic Sanity Prevail?

If there is a deal [with China], it will be on Trump’s terms, not on Wall Street’s terms…Trump has done an amazing job. He doesn’t need the help of Wall Street, he doesn’t need the help of Goldman Sachs. The mission of these unregistered foreign agents [Wall Street types like Hank Paulson], that’s what they […]

Last Week's Stock Market Crash – An Advance Warning

The premises of this war {over} the huge bilateral trade deficit with China are very peculiar. The presumption is that the U.S. is better and more efficient than any other country, and if we don’t export more than we import, China must be cheating. Any economist would say that premise is absurd. We live in […]

American Constitution Trumped

Once upon a time Americans were very sensitive on the subject of taxation. They even dumped British tea into the Boston Harbor as a protest against British taxes. And the American constitution was written to give an elected Congress the primary power to impose taxes. But over the years, Congress has transferred its power to […]

America The Bully

You f…g Americans. Who are you to tell us, the rest of the world, that we’re not going to deal with Iranians? Richard Meddings, Standard Chartered’s Finance Director, said in 2012 America under Donald Trump is emerging as the global bully. Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, the rest of the EU and for that matter, […]

Hurt China — Is That Trump's Real Goal?

I hope what I’m about to say turns out to be too pessimistic and very wrong. But as an alternative scenario it must be considered. Right now, the smart money says a trade war with China Is not going to happen. Accordingly, Trump is just bargaining for a China more open to American business and […]

Trump's Favorite Advisors — Be Afraid

What really makes China so scary today is the fact that it has so many people, and it’s also becoming an incredibly wealthy country so that our great fear is that China will turn into a giant Hong Kong. And if China has a per capita GNP that’s anywhere near Hong Kong’s GNP, it will […]

Will trump allow the US to continue as the world’s innovation economy?

“TRUMP’S CHIEF STRATEGIST STEVE BANNON SUGGESTS HAVING TOO MANY ASIAN TECH CEOs UNDERMINES ‘CIVIC SOCIETY’” The Verge headline based on a Trump/Bannon 2015 interview as reported by the Washington Post Xenophobia definition.  Intense or irrational fear of people from other countries. The United States is indisputably the innovation capital of the world.  Innovation is happening […]

Carl Icahn Was Right

As this blog is written, Carl Icahn announced that he sold his entire extensive position in Apple. He cited macro and political risks in China. In my opinion, he made the smart move. For starters, this blog isn’t really about Apple. It’s about China. Let’s begin with the macro considerations. It’s fairly safe to say […]

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