In recent months China has been increasingly vigorous in asserting control over Hong Kong. Western politicians and the Western intelligentsia have been highly critical of China’s actions. I believe their criticisms are largely misplaced and reflect a lack of interest about in what has actually happened on the ground in Hong Kong. And they certainly […]

Secretary of State Tony Blinken just spent the weekend unhappily meeting with his Chinese counterparts. Blinken saw his role as a noble American with a divinely inspired mission to make the world in America’s image. Like a schoolteacher reprimanding an unruly child he duly lectured his interlocutors on China’s perceived violation of American values. Republican […]

Taiwan is the most important source of conflict between America and China. It is also a major source of investment opportunities. Consider the following: The Global Tech Economy depends on Taiwan. Taiwan Semiconductor Corporation (TSMC) in particular. The majority of major American semiconductor companies, including Apple, Nvidia, Qualcomm and Applied Materials rely on TSMC (along […]

The Trump Administration seems intent on heaping on punishments to the Chinese economy, especially the technology sector.  These punishments are hurting not only China but the entire world including America. Perhaps next will come some type of sanctions on Ant Financial, a planned $35 billion joint offering on Hong Kong and the Shanghai SMART exchanges. […]

Throwing Down The Ladder by Which They Rose.’ Thomas Nast, 1870 (Image: The New York Public Library Digital Collections / CC0 1.0)  It seems that not a day goes by that the Trump team does not heap a new insult and/or sanction on China. If this is part of a reelection campaign, it is a […]

People worry that the US China conflict could by accident turn into a shooting war. In this blog, I am going to show how a conflict could start that would not necessarily be an accident. First some history. In response to Japan’s invasion of Indochina and aggression in China, in 1941 President Franklin Roosevelt imposed […]

I apologize for the absence of The Dismal Optimist over recent months. Some necessary back surgery intervened. As Cher once said to Opra, getting old “sucks” A POSITIVE VIEW OF THE FUTURE OF HONG KONG In response to the passage of the National Security Law for Hong Kong by the Chinese Central government, Western media […]

Technological progress benefits all of humanity in terms of lifespans and health, the ability to travel and communicate—the whole cornucopia of goods and services that have become increasingly available in the last five hundred years. The rise of the stock market depends on continued technological progress and the rise in productivity it brings. The US […]

Will a deal with China get done? Logic says yes but it may just depend on Trump’s mood. Clearly a deal with China and a resultant bump up in the stock market would further Trump’s reelection chances. But as will be discussed regardless of any deal the future for US/China economic relations does not look […]

The near term future of Hong Kong looks grim. A substantial part of the Hong Kong population is dissatisfied with their status as citizens of a Special Administrative Region of China. The freedoms of speech, property rights and internet, a democratically-elected legislature, and the British-legacy legal system are things promised under the Hong Kong Basic […]

“The total decoupling of U.S. and China technologies is not possible…After all, we will know what these American scientists are doing if they release their research in the internet age. They can never live in the refrigerator.” Huawei CEO Ren Zhengfei “Our school communities are desperately short of nurses, social workers, psychologists, counselors and other […]

Please excuse the absence of The Dismal Optimist over the last few months. I have been on my back “meditating” while recovering from a full knee replacement. I don’t recommend the latter. I confess to having voted for Trump in 2016. Year one of Trump brought all kinds of business-friendly measures including a tax cut, […]

The black swan theory is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. Old metaphor popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb For 10 months, China has been paying Tariffs to the USA of 25% on 50 Billion Dollars […]